Performance
Historical Returns
Remember, past performance is no indication of future performance and investing in shares involves risk.
The returns below are shown after costs (brokerage) have been deducted from the gross returns. The returns do not include foreign exchange fluctuation nor do they include dividends received.
|
Calendar Year |
Yearly Return Before Brokerage costs | Yearly Return After Brokerage Costs |
|
2005 |
144.20% |
143.82% |
|
2006 |
73.50% |
73.12% |
|
2007 |
98.50% |
89.19% |
|
2008 |
23.10% |
9.43% |
|
2009 |
113.12% |
78.03% |
|
2010 |
78.28% |
50.72% |
|
2011 |
37.30% |
21.63% |
|
Average Since Inception |
81.14% |
66.56% |
Average Return since inception includes Open and Closed Positions.
The returns are not annualised and they are the returns that you could realistically expect to earn as they are shown after brokerage. Dividends received would increase the returns shown.
Portfolio buy prices are prices that subscribers could have purchased shares after our recommendation was published.
Brokerage Cost Assumptions
Cost per transaction $15
Size of transaction $4,000
When considering these returns you should take into account your own specific brokerage and other costs.
Comparing Our Results to Other Newsletters?
Firstly, most newsletters do not include brokerage costs in their return calculations. This can change the return you get substantially, particularly during volatile times. Be careful that you take this into account when reviewing the returns of other newsletters.
Most other newsletters do not tell you what their performance figures are and those that do sometimes do some interesting things with the numbers. You may like to know when you compare our results to other newsletters there is a very significant difference. When nearly every newsletter adds a stock to their portfolio, they do so when they publish the issue - they claim the entry price BEFORE you read about it, then as you well know, the price "spikes" as everybody clambers to buy the stock - giving the newsletter editor instant "victory" status. We don't do that.We add them to our portfolio after our subscribers read about them - we buy the stock at the same time you do - so our price in the portfolio is the same as yours. Imagine what our returns would be if we played the same game as other newsletters do. We want our results to reflect the results you could realistically achieve yourself. We even tell you where we are going to place our trades. You may want to consider this fact before getting blinded by other hypothetical results and returns.
Our Returns
Sometimes people are suprised by our returns and a few have mentioned they seem "too good to be true". It's understandable when you consider our results because, yes, they are quite exceptional. Certainly, they are so much better than our competitors and we think that is because we are much better at doing what we do and also because we use better methods to do what we do.
Each week we detail our portfolio movements to subscribers, we detail each transaction and each week we show our incremental gain or loss, numbers which are easily checked with a calculator. At the end of the year the return is simply the sum of the increments. No smoke and mirrors at all - we don't need them - it's just straight arithmetic.
Our buy prices are those achieved after we tell subscribers what to do, not before. Of course, you'd have different returns if you ignored our advice and did your own thing, as some people have done in the past.There's no trickery in what we do, we set realistic buy prices as limit orders and simply wait for the market to meet our price. Sometimes, it takes a week or two to fill an order, but we do ask our subscribers to be patient and put their emotions to one side.
The Trident Confidential way of investing is:
1 part stock selection
1 part trading system
1 part patience
Put it altogether and you have good results.
How Calculating Our Returns Works
Every newsletter in the world seems to have a different way of calculating their returns. However, these days, more and more seem to not indulge in this practice anymore due to ridicule, accusations of dodgy numbers and also because people who do the most accusing are generally those who have the least skill in doing arithmetic. So, for those who would like to know exactly how our returns are calculated, I will present a very simple example of how it’s done at Trident Confidential.Lets look at a 10 stock portfolio, all have the same amount of money in them at time of purchase, say $4,000 in each position.
Also, during the period, it could be a week, or month or a year, there could have been a sale and a new buy.
These transactions are included in the reported return as part of the period’s return as either a loss or a profit depending on the purchase price and price the stock was sold for or the current price of the new stock. This profit or loss effect to the portfolio is apportioned in terms of it’s size and effect to the portfolio over all. In the case of a ten stock portfolio as above, the effect of one loss on a sold stock, of say 5%, will have an effect of 0.5% negative return over the whole portfolio due to it being only a tenth of the portfolio. The same would apply to a profit on a stock bought between reporting periods.
The effect on the portfolio, as a percentage, affects the portfolio based on how many stocks are in the portfolio at the time the transaction occurs. All stocks in the Trident Confidential portfolio are of equal purchase size (evenly weighted), so as to keep it as simple as possible.
The returns shown are indicative and will vary from subscriber to subscriber due to the amount of money invested in each position and the number of positions invested in.
Obviously, the portfolio return can only be used as a guideline as it would be unusual, one would think, that a subscribers portfolio would be equally weighted and purchases and sale would take place on exactly the same day and at the same price as the portfolio records the transaction.
The returns do not take into account, dividends received or re-invested, brokerage or foreign exchange fluctuations between the Australian dollar and the US dollar whether favourable or not. Foreign exchange fluctuations also carry a degree of risk.
Risks and Disclosures
Past performance is no indication of future performance and investing in stocks involves risk.
Investing in stocks carry risk to the investor losing money. We also sometimes invest in Exchange Traded Funds and these can sometimes carry greater levels of risk. When buying US foreign stocks, foreign exchange fluctuations also carry a degree of risk.
Lance Spicer and Trident Investment Management Pty Ltd do not undertake “conflicting trades”. This means when Trident or Lance Spicer pass on a buy recommendation they do not then sell the same stock at a profit while subscribers are buying. This practice is often called “pumping and dumping”.
Lance Spicer actually invests his own money in many of the stock recommendations, although he may or may not weight his holdings evenly. His purchase prices may vary slightly from those shown in the TC portfolio in some circumstances. Where his purchase date precedes inclusion in the Trident Confidential Portfolio, disclosure will be made at the time a buy recommendation is made.
Give Lance a pat on the back, after having limited to disappointing to disastrous or no success with 4 other newsletters, over the last 6 months I have seen this investment system work for me in times where its not a given compared to post march 2009. This newsletter is just right in the amount of info provided each week saving my time, timely publications and excellent value for money with most of the others being 1.5 - 2+ times the cost. Cheers"
As usual, you were right.
I have finally learnt from you after 2 years, it almost alway makes sense to go against the herd in the stockmarket. While I have no doubt paid more than you for many of the stocks in the portfolio (my funds transfer took some time due to my own fault) and I could not take advantage of the deepest part of the dip, I still paid below your buy up to prices on all stocks I purchased. I took 6 allocations after saving money over time to do so and waited for the dip. I was very tempted to buy XXXX way above your buy up to price before the earnings announcement (lucky I had the discipline to stick to the trading rules). These fundamental decisions like ensuring having funds available and following ALL THE RULES really make a difference. The main point of the trading system I am learning right now is the buying discipline. When the market bounced the other night, I took a posn in XXXX (worried it would get above the buy up to price), only to see it dip down the next night. Instead of trading in a disciplined way, and waiting for the market to drop in my favour, I followed the herd and bought on an upswing. I am still happy with the purchase, but could have taken far better advantage of the dip the next night. I am going to start following your specific buy allocations, instead of getting frightened I will miss out and setting an allocation just below the buy up to price based on the market the night I am trading. It is time to start saying to myself, if I miss out on once stock, so be it, there will always be more!!!!
I have now built the trident portfolio to over 25 stocks (yippee) with almost all in profit (XXXX one of 2 exceptions and only recently purchased). It will be a long time before I take any positions in Australia, USA seems to be where the recovery will gain momentum!!!!
Thank you, from my kids, who with my help will be able to afford a house in twenty years time from my investments with trident.
YOU ARE NEVER EVER ALLOWED TO RETIRE!!!!!!
Just read the 3rd Nov newsletter (normally read them within minutes of it been posted !) Keep up the Gr8 work guys !
I have gained 40 - 50% Plus based on using TC and I have lost 20-30% because either I lost my way and not followed the TC rules or thought I was a genius after some success and speculate.....
My first losses made my stomach sick but I bounced back and viewed them as gr8 lessons on how I can invest better and my relationship with money.
Bottom line is I take responsibility for my investing actions and leverage the fantastic work and experience you guys generously provide. That I believe is a successful combo ! in investing and in many life's endeavours. Warm regards"
This is a fantastic result in a volatile market & far better than another newsletter that has had it’s subscribers sitting in cash & out of shares since the end of 2007.
Lance, I greatly appreciate your enthusiasm & efforts-the amount of information is amazing & of course I am delighted with the results!
Best wishes,