Most investors probably think 2008/9 was like the end of the world as they have seen their portfolios disappear under the weight of massive losses in many stocks they thought were good. Most markets were down well over 40%. It was a grim time to be an investor.

However, we have over 30 years stock market experience and predicted (back in late 2008) an end to this bear market by early to mid 2009.  As it turned out, we were correct and have taken advantage of the negative sentiment. We believe it shouldn't matter what the market is doing, you should always be able to make money choosing the right stocks, at the right time when you take into account what part of the economic cycle you are in.
2008 was a terrible year for the stock market, but we still managed a profit of 23% for our subscribers. Most fund managers would be happy with that during a bull market - but we made 23% in the the worst market since 1945. How?

By understanding what stocks would rise and also understanding what stocks would fall. It's simply a matter of "reading" the market and the underlying economic fundamentals and using history as our guide. It worked superbly.

Now, we are most likely entering a new bull market and again we have identified the sectors and stocks within those sectors that will outperform. See our Portfolio below and you can see where we and our subscribers are investing. Over coming months we'll be targeting more Australian and Global stocks to maximise this "early rise" period in the economic cycle.

What most people don't realise is that you can make money in a bear market, and not by "shorting" stocks or buying put options either. You can do it by buying the "right" stocks.

Some of our closed (sold) positions during 2009, were:
· Carnarvon Oil (CVN) Profit of 85% in 12 weeks
· Lynas (LYC) Profit of 110% in 8 weeks
· Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) Profit of 88% in 9 weeks
· Norfolk Group (NFK) Profit 105% in 4 weeks
· Strike Oil (STX) Profit of 60% in 13 weeks
· Hexcel (HXL) Profit of 76% in 12 weeks
And our worst investments for 2009?
· Lynas (LYC) we lost 27% making it the newsletter's worst investment in it's history (since 2004). We sold this investment in February 2009 still believing that we were right about this company, but had to obey our "rules". We re-entered the stock a week later and made 66% within weeks. Then opened another position in April 2009 and made a further 110% for subscribers.
· We also lost 32% on one position when the Coretrack - Imdex merger was reversed in a shock decision after two weeks. This is the worst loss since inception in 2005.

Our total 2009 profit (including closed positions both profitable and losing) was +113.12%

You may like to know when you compare our results to other newsletters there is a very significant difference. When nearly every newsletter adds a stock to their portfolio, they do so when they publish the issue - They claim the entry price BEFORE you read about it, then as you well know, the price "spikes" as everybody clammers to buy the stock - giving the newsletter editor instant "victory" status. We don't do that.

We add them to our portfolio after our subscribers read about them - we buy the stock at the same time you do - so our price in the portfolio is the same as yours. Imagine what our returns would be if we played the same game as other newsletters do? We want our results to reflect the results you could realistically achieve yourself. We even tell you where we are going to place our trades. You may want to consider this fact before getting blinded by hypothetical results and returns.

Yes, we do have our detractors and disbelievers who doubt our returns (some say we lie, but these people hide behind anonymity) and say our returns are too good to be true. It's understandable when you consider our results. Others declare that our results should be checked by Hulberts Digest in the US - they have refused because we are Australian (they don't rate foreign newsletters).
However, each week we detail our portfolio movements to subscribers, we detail each transaction and each week we show our incremental gain or loss, which are easily checked with a calculator. At the end of the year the return is simply the sum of the increments. No smoke and mirrors (or lies) as some have claimed.

The only way a subscriber would not have similar returns to our own would be if they didn't follow our trading rules and didn't buy stocks where we tell them to. Our buy prices are those acheived after we tell subscibers what to do, not before. Of course you'd have different returns if you ignored our advice and did your own thing, as some people have done in the past. There's no trickery in what we do, we set realistic buy prices as limit orders and simply wait for the market to meet our price. Sometimes, it takes a week or two to fill an order, but we do ask our subscribers to be patient and put their emotions to one side.

The Trident Confidential way of investing is:
1 part stock selection
1 part trading system
1 part patience
Put it altogether and you have good results.

The bottom line is the returns are the returns. If we have misrepresented them in any way, we'll happily provide a full refund. Further down we disclose exactly how we do the calculations.

2008 Bear Market Results - Full Year +23.10%

While we made profits on sold positions of 19% during 2008, we also made nearly 24% on our open positions in 2008 and during the worst market in decades. This, when markets dropped 40-50% over the corresponding period. The total return was 23%.

During October and November 2008 as stock prices were plummeting, our "Switch Strategy" yielded profits of 65% and 47% on two trades for the portfolio. We employed this strategy several times during the period from October to March 2009, with profitable results every single time.

2009 Results - Full Year - +113.12%

Our 2009 results were as follows:

Our total 2009 profit (including closed positions) was +113.12%

By employing a number of different strategies and telling our subscibers exactly how and when to use them (in our User's Guide), we have proven that the Trident Confidential Portfolio can make money in all conditions - even if this is the "worst market since the great depression".

Of course we have to say, that past returns are no guarantee of future returns, so you have to take into account we can't predict the future.

2010 Results - 1 January to 30 June 2010  +30%

Up until June 30 2010, our returns have been over 30% on all stocks we have purchased in 2010 while the markets have during the first 6 months of 2010.
 
Historical Returns
· Return 2005   144.20% pa
· Return 2006   73.50% pa
· Return 2007   98.50% pa
· Return 2008   23.10% pa
· Return 2009   113.12%pa.
· Average Return since inception over 90% pa
· Average Return since inception includes Open and Closed Positions.

How Calculating the Returns Works.

Every newsletter in the world seems to have a different way of calculating their returns. However, these days, more and more seem to not indulge in this practice anymore due to ridicule, accusations of dodgy numbers and also because people who do the most accusing are generally those who have the least skill in doing arithmetic. So, for those who would like to know exactly how our returns are calculated, I will present a very simple example of how it’s done at Trident Confidential.

Lets look at a 10 stock portfolio, all have the same amount of money in them at time of purchase, say $1,000 in each position.
 

Also, during the period, it could be a week, or month or a year, there could have been a sale and a new buy.
 
These transactions are included in the reported return as part of the period’s return as either a loss or a profit depending on the purchase price and price the stock was sold for or the current price of the new stock. This profit or loss effect to the portfolio is apportioned in terms of it’s size and effect to the portfolio over all. In the case of a ten stock portfolio as above, the effect of one loss on a sold stock, of say 5%, will have an effect of 0.5% negative return over the whole portfolio due to it being only a tenth of the portfolio. The same would apply to a profit on a stock bought between reporting periods.
 
The effect on the portfolio, as a percentage, effects the portfolio and how many stocks are in the portfolio at the time the transaction occurs. All stocks in the Trident Confidential portfolio are of equal purchase size (evenly weighted), so as to keep it as simple as possible.
 
The returns shown are indicative and will vary from subscriber to subscriber due to the amount of money invested in each position and the number of positions invested in.
 
Obviously, the portfolio return can only be used as a guideline as it would be unusual, one would think, that a subscribers portfolio would be equally weighted and purchases and sale would take place on exactly the same day and at the same price as the portfolio records the transaction.
 
The returns do not take into account, dividends received or re-invested, brokerage or foreign exchange fluctuations between the Australian dollar and the US dollar whether favourable or not. Foreign exchange fluctuations also carry a degree of risk.
 
Risks and Disclosures

Past performance is no indication of future performance and investing in stocks involves risk.

Lance Spicer and Trident Investment Management Pty Ltd do not undertake “conflicting trades”. This means when Trident or Lance Spicer pass on a buy recommendation they do not then sell the same stock at a profit while subscribers are buying. This practice is often called “pumping and dumping”.
 
Lance Spicer actually invests his own money in many of the stock recommendations, although he may or may not weight his holdings evenly. His purchase prices may vary slightly from those shown in the TC portfolio in some circumstances. Where his purchase date precedes inclusion in the Trident Confidential Portfolio, disclosure will be made at the time a buy recommendation is made.

Our returns calculations are in accordance with ASIC, IFSA and AIPS Guidelines.

"Hi Lance,
I have recently joined, and as I read through your reports, I am absolutely amazed at how accurate your comments were during the worst of the financial crisis (Nov 2008 - March 2009), and how calm you remained. I was also very pleased to see that a couple of stocks you were recommending at the time were on my radar too.
But since joining as a member, I have easily made 1000% on my money thanks to your expert tips... using leverage through CFD's...
Cheers", - Mohan P. - 22 October 2009

"Please pass on my congratulations and thanks to Lance. I have spent thousands in Financial Education in the last two years on Robert Kiyosaki, John Burley, Anthony Robbins, George Fontanills (Optionetics) and Donald Trump just to name a few. All very wise men with great product, their individual products have laid a great foundation for my financial educational. Problem is I have spent thousands and to date I have made nothing from their advice.
On the other hand, Lance's advice in Trident Confidential November Issue stock picks, has made the cost the purchase of the Ultimate Wealth and Freedom Library plus enough to treat myself with other great things. The information is in layman terms, easy to apply in the Australian Market and sound advice.
If only the Ultimate Wealth and Freedom Library had been at the top of my shopping list rather than near the bottom, I would have not spent so much on all the other reference material I have purchased and instead have been able to spend more on Lance's great investments. Not to worry I now have an Automatic Investment Plan in place that invests 10% of my income into a Cash Mgmt account. From there I’ll invest it into investments as suggested in Lance's Wealth Creation Newsletters in 2008 & Beyond. Thanks, keep up the excellent work." - LP, Sydney

"Hello Lance, I just want to say thank you for all your words of wisdom and help given to me. I have been a subscriber since Nov 2008 and started trading as a novice in January 2009. I lost a lot of money most of it from not sticking to your rules. I have recovered all that and more so that is wonderful. My portfolio at one stage sat at 53% profit and I can remember yours was a little lower at the time so I was pretty impressed with myself". - Carolyn P. Western Australia - 28 May 2009

"Thanks for doing what you do. It is nothing short of GREAT!"
Kind Regards, David P. - East Lismore, NSW Australia

"Hello Lance, I just want to say thank you for all your words of wisdom and help given to me. I have been a subscriber since Nov 2008 and started trading as a novice in January 2009. I lost a lot of money most of it from not sticking to your rules. I have recovered all that and more so that is wonderful. My portfolio at one stage sat at 53% profit and I can remember yours was a little lower at the time so I was pretty impressed with myself". - Carolyn P. Western Australia - 28 May 2009 .